When the treasury bond yield curve inverts (and remains inverted for some time), the likelihood of the economy slipping into recession is high. A yield curve is a graph on which bonds are ...

The economist Robert Solow, who died in December, once said that everything reminded Milton Friedman, his fellow Nobel ...

The event – commonly dubbed a yield curve inversion – was largely viewed as a signal the U.S. economy would likely slip into recession in the near future. An inverted yield curve occurs when ...

The financial market’s top recession warning, the inverted yield curve, looks ready to end its record stretch of flashing a ...

The U.S. Treasury yield curve, one of the most reliable signals of recession, is flashing red again. As of March 2025, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields remains inverted ...

The most watched part of the US yield curve – which plots the yields on different maturities of US government bonds – has briefly inverted for the first time since 2019. In normal conditions ...

The red parts are overestimates, the blue are underestimates." An inverted yield curve, when long-term yields are lower than short-term yields, has a long track record of occurring before recessions.

The top one in my assessment is the change in the treasury rates. These changes are large enough to cause a yield curve inversion since my last writing as you can see from the following chart.

Everyone's talking about the yield curve again. More specifically, investors are fretting about an "inverted yield curve". Unlike many of the beasts that are regularly spotted in financial markets ...

The 2-10-year segment of the U.S. Treasury curve has been inverted for 482 business days, they said. The inversion reflects persistent delays to expectations of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts ...