Social Security's biggest reveal of the year is creeping up quickly, but a majority of its 68 million beneficiaries are liable to be left disappointed.

While the official COLA will be announced next month, experts following inflation trends month to month can make fairly accurate predictions for what the adjustment will look like

Social Security recipients received a 3.2% COLA in 2024, a significant decrease from the 8.7% COLA in 2023, which was the largest increase in four decades. For 2025, using current inflation data from the Consumer Price Index, it’s estimated there will be a 2.5% COLA in 2025, according to The Senior Citizens League (TSCL).

The Social Security 2025 COLA forecast was recently revised downward.

The inflation data for August gives us a pretty good idea about the likely magnitude of Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2025. This automatic indexing of benefits to keep up with rising prices — always a wonderful feature of our Social Security program — has been particularly valuable in light of the recent bout of inflation.

Seniors collecting Social Security receive a raise almost every year to help their checks keep up with the rising cost of living. The government is still a few weeks away from finalizing the numbers to calculate next year's cost-of-living adjustment,

Following the July inflation report, the nonpartisan senior advocacy group The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) was forecasting a 2.57% COLA for 2025 (which would round up to 2.6%). Likewise, independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst Mary Johnson, who recently retired from TSCL, had estimated a 2.6% COLA for next year.

Social Security recipients received a 3.2% adjustment. The average retired worker benefit lands at roughly $1,900 per month, so that amounts to a raise of just over $60 p

The purpose of COLAs is to help Social Security beneficiaries maintain their buying power in the face of inflation. Over time, living costs tend to rise naturally. Keeping Social Security payments stagnant would likely force those who rely on them into poverty through the years.

The Labor Department will publish September CPI-W data on Oct. 10, at 8:30 AM ET. That will be the final piece of information needed to calculate the 2025 COLA. Retirees should expect a press release concerning the COLA from the Social Security Administration that same day.