Silver released his final forecast after running 80,000 simulations of the race based on polling data and found that Harris with a 50.015% chance of winning compared to Trump’s 49.985% ...

And most recently on August 10 New York Times-Siena released a battery of Trump vs. Harris polls from the same three “blue wall” states, showing Harris leading by four points among likely ...

Other polls found that Harris is running head-to-head with Trump in national surveys. In a March Fox News poll , Trump led Harris by six points and Biden by five points.

Polls taken soon after Joe Biden’s withdrawal in favor of Kamala Harris are now yielding to polls showing steady gains for Harris against Trump. That’s now a trend, not just a bounce, though ...