A new analysis from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Punxsutawney Phil came in near the bottom of a pack of long-time U.S.-based animal forecasters.

The groundhogs — along with a tortoise, whose emergence from his winter hibernation foretells the coming of spring, and a prairie dog statue, whose shadow at sunrise predicts how long it will be until spring arrives — were ranked based on their accuracy over the past 20 years, using the March temperature averages for the U.S., NOAA said.

NOAA set a few ground rules. The groundhogs and "alternative groundhogs" must have been prognosticating for at least 20 years and must also have been active as of Feb. 2, 2024. The competitors included 13 groundhogs, three taxidermied groundhogs, one never-seen creature presumed to be a groundhog, a prairie dog statue and a tortoise.