When you're in the bowl-projection business, it is essential to balance two competing instincts: the instinct to project the bowl schedule as it would look now, and the instinct to project the bowl schedule as it is likely to look after the season.

No self-respecting college football program should ever need a bit of extra motivation heading into Rivalry Week. It’s the one game every year where records don’t matter, talent disparity means even less and extremely successful head coaches find themselves on the hot seat after a loss.

With one more week of regular-season action, 77 teams have qualified for the postseason and two more are guaranteed with a pair of showdowns between 5-6 squads this weekend.