If prices go up, Fed officials may be inclined to raise its benchmark rate, raising borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. That could lead to businesses to cut jobs, particularly in the high-growth tech sector, and force Americans to pull back on spending, which drives more than 70% of economic activity in the U.S.

Oil prices rallied over 7% today after Israeli airstrikes on Iran. This elevated geopolitical uncertainty and requires the oil market to price in a larger risk premium for supply disruption.

A sustained rise in the price of crude oil, which jumped sharply after Israel attacked Iran, could hurt consumers and President Trump’s efforts to bring down energy costs.